Reigniting the Cold War: US Long-Range Weapons Spark New Arms Race in Europe


For the first time since the 1990s, the United States plans to install long-range weapons in Germany, a move that has sparked warnings of a new arms race from parties on both the right and left. This agreement was reached at the recent NATO summit in Washington. "We know that there has been an incredible arms buildup in Russia, with weapons that threaten European territory," said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during the summit.

Following the end of the Cold War, the US and Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) significantly reduced their arsenals of long-range weapons in Europe, fostering a sense of peace and security. However, Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022 has reignited old hostilities. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has expressed concerns over a "serious gap in capabilities."

A Question of Range

The arms slated for deployment by 2026 include Tomahawk cruise missiles, known for their effectiveness over the past three decades, most recently against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Unlike missiles that take an elliptical trajectory, cruise missiles fly parallel to the ground at a low altitude, making them difficult for enemy radar to detect and intercept. Also in development are US missiles capable of speeds several times the speed of sound and ranges over 2,750 kilometers (1,709 miles).

Germany's Taurus cruise missiles, in contrast, can only travel about 500 kilometers (311 miles) and are launched by aircraft. Tomahawks can be launched from the ground or from ships and have a range of up to 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles). For context, the distance from Berlin to Moscow is about 1,600 kilometers (994 miles). The Russian enclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea is less than 600 kilometers away, which Pistorius believes could pose the greatest threat, as "we believe Russia has had these weapons systems stationed in Kaliningrad for some time, meaning that they are within range of Germany and other European nations."

Concerns About an Arms Race

The political reaction in Germany is divided. Centrist parties largely support the deployment, while those on the margins oppose it. Scholz's center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) sees the move as necessary. The Greens, the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the center-right bloc of Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) are generally in agreement. However, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Left party, and the newly founded populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) expressed concerns about a new arms race. "The deployment makes Germany a target," said AfD national spokesperson Tino Chrupalla. "Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz is not acting in Germany's interests."

"We are definitely heading for a new arms race," said Tim Thies from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg. "Of course, both things can be true at the same time. The planned long-range weapons may be important assets in NATO's strategy, and yet we have to assume a Russian response."

Parallels and Differences to the NATO Dual-Track Decision

This situation recalls NATO's Dual-Track Decision during the Cold War. In 1979, the Western Alliance announced the deployment of medium-range nuclear missiles and cruise missiles in Western Europe in response to the Soviet threat. Simultaneously, Moscow was invited to disarmament negotiations, leading to several nuclear disarmament treaties. However, the Dual-Track Decision was highly divisive in West Germany and led to mass protests, supported by the then-emerging Green Party. Even Olaf Scholz, as a young democratic socialist, protested against US weapons.

In 1983, German Bundeswehr soldiers participated in a major demonstration in Bonn against the deployment of American medium-range nuclear missiles and cruise missiles. "What resulted was the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the scrapping of hundreds of American and even more Soviet missiles," Thies said. "The path to this was anything but inevitable and was paved not least by the extraordinary relationship between US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev."

Germany to Develop Its Own Weapons

The current deployment plan is intended as a temporary solution. Pistorius told Deutschlandfunk that "this is clearly linked to the expectation of the US (and rightly so) that we invest in the development and procurement of such ranged weapons ourselves." This will give Germany time to develop its own weapons. Steps have already been taken, with representatives from Germany, France, Italy, and Poland signing a declaration of intent to develop ground-based cruise missiles with a range of over 500 kilometers (311 miles).

Thies does not believe that the deployment plans would be scrapped if Trump were to win the US presidential election in November. "Many of the weapon systems now being discussed were initiated under Trump. Moreover, according to Pistorius, Germany is supposed to pay for the deployment itself. The German government seems to be anticipating any possible demands from a potential future President Trump."

How to End the Arms Race

Moscow's reaction to the plans was also predictable. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated that these developments would undermine Russian security, calling it "a step towards escalation" by NATO and the US, according to the state-run agency Tass. Thies expects that Russia will respond by deploying and further developing its own nuclear long-range systems, which could potentially reach US territory. While Thies does not necessarily oppose these plans, he suggests that it is crucial to consider potential pathways to de-escalate the emerging arms race.

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